The field of 68 is official, which means that at some point between now and early Thursday afternoon, you’re probably going to be asked to fill out a bracket. It’s always a daunting task, and the fear of embarrassing yourself in front of friends, family or colleagues who you didn’t care for much to begin with can be unnerving
Thankfully, we’re here to help with 15 bracket tips you can ride to an admirable finish in your bracket challenge.
1. Get a little wild with one Final Four pick
I will harp this every year until it stops being true.
Sure it’s scary to take one team that could easily lose in the first round and advance it all the way to the Final Four, but it also might be the key to winning your bracket pool. Every single Final Four but one since 2012 has featured at least one team seeded No. 7 or worse. The last four tournaments and five of the last six have had at least one team seeded No. 8 or worse in the Final Four. Since 2011, a grand total of 13 teams seeded seventh or worse have crashed the season’s final weekend.
A year ago, it was 11th-seeded NC State going crazy and making a run to the national semifinals.
The only recent season in which a 7-seed or worse hasn’t made a Final Four was 2019, and even then, you had a 5-seed crashing the party. So take the three teams you like the most to the Final Four, and then maybe throw a dart in the region where you feel like the top seeds are the most vulnerable.
2. Believe in at least one power conference underachiever
One of the longest active March Madness streaks that isn’t discussed enough is that a “power six” conference team seeded 8th or worse has reached the Sweet 16 in every NCAA tournament since 2008. NC State (again) kept this trend going last season with its magical run.
Teams that fit that description this year:
Louisville (8)
Mississippi State (8)
UConn (8)
Baylor (9)
Oklahoma (9)
Creighton (9)
Georgia (9)
Vanderbilt (10)
Arkansas (10)
North Carolina (11)
Texas (11)
Xavier (11)
You may hate all these teams, but history says at least one of them is going to be one of the last 16 squads standing.
3. Believe in at least one “First Four” team
Even though the “First Four” — those four games typically played in Dayton on Tuesday and Wednesday featuring the lowest-seeded four teams in the field and the last four at-large teams to get in — has been fairly controversial and often mocked since its inception in 2011, a team coming out of Dayton has won at least one game in the tournament’s “main draw” in every year but one since the First Four became a thing. The only time it hasn’t happened was in 2019.
Overall, the First Four has produced a total of 22 victories in the “main draw” of the tournament, five Sweet 16 squads, and two Final Four teams.
A year ago, Colorado outlasted Florida in a 102-100 first round thriller to keep the trend going. This season, North Carolina, Xavier, Texas and San Diego State are the teams looking to do the same.
4. Don’t pick a No. 5 seed to win it all
You probably weren’t anyway, but just in case you were thinking about it, don’t. Every seed line from 1-8 has produced at least one national champion besides the 5-seed line.
No. 5 seeds have made it to the title game four times, including two seasons ago with San Diego State, but have never been able to be the last team standing.
My most sincere apologies to Oregon, Memphis, Michigan and Clemson.
5. Pick at least one 12 seed to win in the first round
The 12/5 upset has a reputation for a reason.
In 33 of the last 39 years, at least one 12 seed has advanced out of the first round of the tournament. Over the last 16 years, 12 seeds actually own a highly respectable overall record of 27-37 against five seeds.
Grand Canyon and James Madison both pulled convincing upsets a year ago, with UAB coming up just short against San Diego State.
This year’s 12-seed line is stacked.
UC San Diego is a top 40 team in virtually every metric and has a game against a Michigan team that, despite its run to the Big 10 tournament title, has been winning close all season. McNeese has lost once since mid-December and has maybe the most sought-after head coach in the sport. Mountain West champ Colorado State has won 10 straight and hasn’t won a game by fewer than eight points over that stretch. Liberty beat both McNeese and Kansas State on a neutral court back in November and also won a 12/5 game under head coach Ritchie McKay back in 2019.
At least one of these teams is winning this week.
6. Take a close look at the 13/4 matchups as well
We just talked about the frequency of the 12/5 upset in the NCAA Tournament, but how about some love for the work the No. 13 seeds have been putting in recently? At least one 13-seed has won a game in the tournament in 12 of the last 16 years.
Yale pulled the feat against Auburn last season, and Samford was a questionable late call away from doing the same to Kansas.
Yale (again), High Point, Akron and Grand Canyon combine to form a very capable quartet of potential Cinderellas.
7. Saint Mary’s is on high upset alert
This is a weird one.
In the last four NCAA tournaments, the team with the best rebound rate in the country has been upset in the first round — Saint Mary’s against Grand Canyon last year, Purdue against Fairleigh Dickinson in 2023, Kentucky against Saint Peter’s in 2022, and North Carolina against Wisconsin in 2021.
It makes absolutely no sense, but maybe the Gaels should have been slightly worse on the board this season. Congrats, Vandy.
8. Don’t automatically move all four No. 2 seeds to the second weekend
In 24 of the last 27 years, at least one No. 2 seed has been knocked out of the tournament before the Sweet 16. Straying from the chalk is always scary, especially before the second weekend, but you need to conquer that fear in at least one region.
9. Be especially wary of overachieving No. 2 seeds
Another note here: There have been 24 No. 2 seeds in tournament history that started the season unranked and entered the tournament ranked in the top 10. Fifteen of those 24 teams have failed to make it to the Sweet 16.
Two teams fit that description this year: Michigan State and St. John’s.
10. You need at least one “surprise” Elite Eight team
Maybe you’re not comfortable getting too crazy with your Final Four, but at least make sure your Elite Eight has some flavor.
In each of the last 13 seasons, at least one team seeded fifth or worse has played in a regional final, and in 12 of the last 13 seasons, at least one team seeded 7th or worse has advanced to a regional final. We’ve also seen at least one double-digit seed in the Elite Eight in six of the last eight years.
Half of last year’s Elite Eight was comprised of teams seeded for fifth or worse, including ninth-seeded Florida Atlantic.
It might wind up being the “chalkiest Final Four since 2015” as so many are predicting, but that doesn’t mean it still won’t get at least a little bit weird before the last four teams standing head to San Antonio.
11. Conference championships typically matter
In the history of the NCAA tournament, there have only been five national champions (who participated in a conference tournament) that didn’t first win either their league’s regular season or postseason title. Villanova in 1985, Kansas in 1988, Connecticut in 2014, Duke in 2015 and UConn in 2023 are the only exceptions.
This doesn’t bode well for every SEC team not named Auburn or Florida.
12. Be mindful of the Big Ten/West Coast drought
One of the longest-running debates in college basketball is when a team from the West Coast or the Big Ten will win its next national title. It has reached a fever pitch the last couple of seasons with the Big Ten appearing to be one of the two best conference in the sport and a resurgent West Coast producing multiple national title contenders.
A team from the Big Ten team hasn’t won it all since Michigan State in 2000, and a West Coast squad hasn’t cut down the nets since Arizona stunned Kentucky in 1997.
13. Gonzaga and Kansas are (usually) early locks
Since 2008, there are only two teams that have appeared in every single NCAA tournament without losing a single first round game: Gonzaga and Kansas. The Bulldogs also have the longest active consecutive run of Sweet 16 appearances, making it to the tournament’s second weekend in every year since 2014. If they’re able to achieve the feat for a 10th-straight time, it would be a new NCAA tournament record.
These streaks will be put to the test in a year where the Jayhawks are a 7-seed trending downwards and the Bulldogs have been assigned to the 8/9 “Death Game.”
14. Don’t be scared off by a power conference team’s high number of losses
Since 2011, there have been 15 teams that have earned at-large bids despite losing at least 14 games. Five of the last six of those teams have won a first round game in the dance, and those teams are 8-6 in first round games overall (one lost in the First Four).
Think twice before predicting early exits for No. 9 seed Baylor or No. 11 seed Texas (should the Longhorns advance out of Dayton).
15. Don’t feel bad about picking a No. 1 seed to win it all
Even if you’re not going with the overall No. 1 seed, don’t let anybody shame you for picking a top seed to cut down the nets. Since seeding the field began, No. 1 seeds have won more national titles (26) than all other seeds combined (18).
A No. 1 seed has won six of the last seven national titles, seven of the last nine, and nine of the last 12.
With this year’s top line seeming to be especially stellar, you’re probably on the right page if you’re picking between Duke, Auburn, Houston and Florida to cut down the nets.
