Perhaps the toughest game to predict this weekend kicks off on Sunday afternoon, when the Philadelphia Eagles host the Los Angeles Rams in a matchup of two teams that met earlier this season.
The Eagles won that contest in November by a final score of 37-20.
When Matthew Stafford is playing at his best, the Rams are tough to beat. Just ask the Minnesota Vikings or the Buffalo Bills.
But here are three reasons the Eagles will move on to the NFC Championship Game.
Saquon Barkley and one of the best offensive lines in football
From the opening offensive snap against the Green Bay Packers, the Eagles offensive line — and Saquon Barkley behind them — were a thing of beauty on Sunday.
That is not hyperbole. This is Philadelphia’s first offensive snap against the Packers, after recovering a fumble on the opening kickoff. Watch as Lane Johnson and company reset the line of scrimmage, get movement to the second level, and Barkley works his magic behind them:
There is a reason nobody runs the football more than the Philadelphia Eagles: They are incredibly good at it.
As for the Rams? They have a below-average defense against the run, by a few different metrics. They’ve allowed an average of 130 yards per game on the ground, the 11th-most in the league. They’ve allowed an average of -0.052 Expected Points Added per Run this year, which puts them below the league average.
And let’s not forget, Barkley went for 255 yards and a pair of touchdowns when these two teams met in Los Angeles back in November.
This matchup, on what could be a cold and snowy afternoon in Philadelphia, was built in a lab for the Eagles to run the football.
The Philadelphia … passing game?
Let’s say, for the moment, the Rams sell out against the run and slow down Barkley.
Los Angeles still has Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and the Eagles passing game to contend with. That might be a problem for the Rams. While Los Angeles has been effective at containing the pass over the middle — they rank tenth in DVOA against throws over the middle, and were first in the league in DVOA against slot receivers — those numbers crater on throws to the outside.
Where Brown and Smith tend to operate.
If, hypothetically, the Rams find a way to slow down Barkley and the Philadelphia rushing attack, Hurts and company can find some success throwing outside the numbers.
Vic Fangio and the Philadelphia defense
Speaking of being “built for this moment,” let’s turn to Vic Fangio and the Philadelphia defense.
Since the team’s early bye week, the Eagles have been a much-improved unit. Last week against the Packers was just the latest example, as they frustrated Jordan Love in the pocket early and often, forced three interceptions, and other than a bruising run from Josh Jacobs held the Green Bay offense in check.
We can probably expect something similar this weekend.
When these two teams meet in November, the Eagles got to Matthew Stafford for five sacks, and similar to last Sunday pressured him throughout the contest. According to charting data from Pro Football Focus Stafford was pressured on 31% of his dropbacks in that game, completing just one of seven passes when the Eagles got to him in the pocket.
Fangio’s long NFL resume includes helping put together a roadmap of sorts to slow down Sean McVay’s offense. Back in 2018 the Rams were one of the league’s best offensive units, but late in the season Fangio — then the defensive coordinator with the Chicago Bears — put together a gameplan that held Los Angeles to just six points in a 15-6 Chicago win.
Fangio will be ready for this one.
