It’s the game of the weekend, if not the entire season. Ravens vs. Bills is the heavyweight matchup of the AFC, with the winner likely cementing themselves as Super Bowl favorites. Two of the league’s best offenses, led by two quarterbacks with equal claim for the MVP award — it doesn’t get much better than this.
There are reasons you could pick Buffalo here. The weather, an outdoor stadium, and Josh Allen’s ability to create something out of nothing are the biggest selling points for the Bills — but ultimately the Ravens have three big reasons they should be able to win and move on.
No. 1: Defensive disparity
The biggest difference between the Ravens and Bills this season is on the defensive side of the ball. Baltimore ranks 6th in the league in defensive DVOA, while the Bills rank 11th. That might seem like a small difference, but the margins between these teams are razor thin — and that matters.
Stacking them up head-to-head in non-advanced metrics shows why the Ravens are so strong too.
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Passing TDs allowed
Ravens: 19th
Bills: 24th -
Passing YPA allowed
Ravens: 13th
Bills: 17th -
Rushing TDs allowed
Ravens: 7th
Bills: 10th -
Rushing YPA allowed
Ravens: 1st
Bills: 19th
These are all relatively small margins, but again: Razor thin margins. When every appreciable defense edge goes to Baltimore, and offensive these teams are so close, it ends up becoming a more significant factor.
No. 2: Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson’s legs
The 2024 season was all about the return of the running back, and it’s no surprise that seven of the Top 10 rushers this year all made the playoffs. Nobody needs to go over Derrick Henry’s resume, but the dimension he’s added to the offense is profound.
Stopping the run has been a problem for Buffalo this season. The team ranked 12th in yards allowed, and 19th in yards per attempt. This is made even more problematic when you consider what Lamar Jackson can do on designed runs.
In the past the answer to stopping Baltimore on offense was relatively simple: Contain Lamar, and everything else takes care of itself. When he was forced to be the quarterback and leading rusher the pressure was on Jackson to play hero ball every game. Now the team can simply pivot and make Henry a focal point when needed, and that’s paid off in a big way.
The Bills do have the edge against the pass, but it’s the run game that will likely define this matchup.
No. 3: Pass rush
In a game like this it really could come down to who can slow the opposing superstar QB more often, and there’s a clear edge here to Baltimore. The Big 3 of the Ravens pass rush are Kyle Van Noy (12.5 sacks), Odafe Oweh (10 sacks), and Nnamdi Madubuike (6.5 sacks), who have combined for over 90 pressures this season.
On the other side of the ball the top three Bills pass rushers have a combined 20 sacks and 69 pressures. That’s a significant difference, particularly with Madubuike from the DT position who amassed 40 pressures for the Ravens this season.
Collapsing the pocket from the middle and disrupting plays before they start is key. It also helps prevent Allen from gashing the Ravens up the middle with his legs. It’s not about completely shutting down a QB like Josh Allen, because he’s good enough to make you pay — it’s simply about slowing him down more that they can slow your guy. That’s why the Ravens have the edge here.
Ultimately this game is the biggest coin toss of the weekend. It truly could go either way, but there are some solid reasons to believe Baltimore is in the driver’s seat before we hit Sunday.
