Breanna Stewart, A’ja Wilson and Team USA take on Ezinne Kalu and Nigeria in Olympic basketball quarterfinals

The Olympic women’s basketball quarterfinals take place tomorrow, and with that, the U.S. will face off against Nigeria at 3:30pm ET. It could be one of the more lopsided quarterfinals games — but then again, Nigeria has been counted out before, and has continued to surprise during this Olympic run.

The two women’s basketball programs hail from vastly different historical contexts: the United States women’s team has won a striking 58 consecutive Olympic games — and seven straight gold medals — while Nigeria just made history by becoming the first African nation to ever make the quarterfinals in Olympic basketball history.

But, in single-elimination play, that might not matters. Historical accolades won’t control the outcome of a forty minute basketball game — if Nigeria plays exceptionally well, and if the U.S. struggles, Nigeria have a chance, as wild an upset as it would be. And while USA Basketball has blown out every opponent so far, several games were close for some time before they pulled away in dominant fashion.

Here’s what to expect from this matchup.

A’ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart will continue to lead USA

So far throughout this Olympic run, the United States has been led by the dominant front-court tandem of Breanna Stewart and A’ja Wilson, each of whom are averaging 20.3 points per game. Both have been incredibly efficient — Stewart is shooting 62.5% from the field, and Wilson 56.8% — and have played off of each other incredibly well. Stewart and Wilson’s elite play should come as no surprise to anyone who’s watched women’s basketball this decade — together, they’ve racked up four MVPs and four championships, while consistently being the most dominant players in the league.

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Throughout the group-stage games, Chelsea Gray, Diana Taurasi, and Napheesa Collier have rounded out the starting lineup, while bench players Alyssa Thomas and Jackie Young have served as particularly meaningful contributors, among others. Young exploded for 19 points (and 5 three-pointers) in Sunday’s win over Germany, while Thomas has provided a spark of energy on both ends of the floor each time she’s checked in.

Brittney Griner, a longtime Team USA veteran, has provided unrivaled size off the bench, and has been the team’s fourth-leading scorer through three games, averaging 8 points and 5.3 rebounds a night. Sharpshooter Sabrina Ionescu — the youngest player on the roster —has added 7.7 points per game, while Jackie Young has scored 8.7 points a game, punctuated by her big performance against Germany.

The beauty of this basketball team has been its well-roundedness and ball movement — outside of Stewart and Wilson, who have both been heavily featured in the offense, scoring and touches have been pretty consistent across the board.

The formula they’ve assembled offensively has worked. Team USA is shooting 49.5% from the field and averaging 92 points per game — 16 points more than Belgium has averaged, and the 2023 EuroBasket champions are responsible for the second highest-scoring offense in the field. Ball distribution has been the hallmark characteristic of the U.S.’s offense — they’ve averaged 28.7 assists per game, led by Gray, who’s dished 6 dimes a night.

While the team didn’t have much time to practice ahead of exhibition play, several combinations of players are also WNBA teammates. Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu, for example, both play for the Liberty. The Aces have four players on the Olympic roster, and they’ve displayed particularly strong chemistry when sharing the floor together. Even former WNBA teams have had the chance to link up. That’s made a substantial difference, said Breanna Stewart.

“We definitely know where one another is,” Stewart said, per USA Today. “You see it with anyone who’s here with their teammates, you just have that chemistry because the (WNBA) season has been going on, all the practices, all the reps. It’s helpful that (Sabrina’s) always looking for me. When you’re in a two- or three-man action, there’s some sense of familiarity … especially in transition, she knows where I’m running and she’s going to find me.”

Nigeria upset two teams en route to the quarterfinals

On the other side of the coin, you have Nigeria, who most probably didn’t predict would qualify for single-elimination play. But, after upsetting Australia 75-62 in their first Olympic game, and later defeating Canada, 79-70, they secured a spot in the quarterfinals.

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Nigeria has been led by Ezinne Kalu, who’s averaged 19.3 points per game on 47.1% shooting. Kalu was a standout at Savannah State University, and is now the fifth leading scorer in the Olympic field. Kalu is a three-level scorer who’s shot 41.2% from downtown, and can also get downhill and draw free throws at a high clip. She’ll likely need a monster performance to pull off the upset — but she’s already shown she thrives in big moments. Alongside her, Murjanatu Musa has also been impactful, averaging 10.7 points and 6.7 rebounds per game.

After Nigeria qualified for the quarterfinals, Kalu articulated the magnitude of the moment.

“It means a lot, you know, not just to us as a team, but to the entire world of Africa,” Kalu said, per AP News. “It only gets harder from here.”

It’s not the first time the two countries’ women’s basketball programs have faced off. The U.S. and Nigeria played one another in a group-stage game in Tokyo, and USA came out on top by 9 points in that one — though they led by double-digits for most of the game.

A loaded day of quarterfinals play

The Nigeria-USA matchup will close out a day of women’s basketball quarterfinals play. Serbia and Australia will kick things off with a game at 5am, followed by Spain-Belgium at 8:30am, before a Germany-France matchup at 12pm ET.

If Team USA defeats Nigeria, they’ll advance to the semifinals, which slated for Friday, August 9th. Both the Bronze and Gold Medal Games are on Sunday.