During his electoral campaign, President-elect Donald Trump pledged to extend many provisions in his signature Tax Cuts & Jobs Act, a 2017 law that overhauled the tax code and handed a financial break to almost every taxpayer.
Many of those provisions are set to expire at the end of 2025, such as the current individual tax brackets and standard deduction. If Republican lawmakers are unable to pass legislation to extend the TCJA reforms next year, more than 6 in 10 filers would face a tax increase in 2026, according to an analysis from the Tax Foundation.
While those dates may seem distant, passing a major tax bill before the TCJA provisions expire next year represents a significant undertaking by Congress. Beyond extending the tax breaks, Trump also dangled a host of additional cuts to everyone from tipped workers, vowing to eliminate taxes on tips, to senior citizens, promising to eliminate taxes on Social Security income.
Extending the TCJA will “keep people in a stable place,” Duncan Campbell, tax leader in Baker Tilly’s private wealth practice, told CBS MoneyWatch. But “We might not see anything and wake up in 2026 with everything setting back to pre-TCJA, and some folks who didn’t think about it are like, “Oh shoot’,” he added.
In the law firm’s tax planning with clients, Campbell noted that Baker Tilly is preparing as if the TCJA provisions could expire at the end of 2025. That helps people protect themselves financially and avoids being caught flat-footed in case Congress fails to pass an extension.
“Prepare as if everything is sunsetting,” Campbell advised. “Something is going to happen to the TCJA, but there is a whole year of things that need to happen before that from a new administration and a new Congress.”
Here’s what to know about the potential federal income tax changes in 2025 and how they could affect you.
Could the Trump tax brackets expire?
The expiring Tax Cut & Jobs Act provisions that could impact the greatest number of taxpayers are the law’s tax brackets, which would revert to their pre-TCJA thresholds if Congress fails to extend the changes under the 2017 law.
Another provision that could also impact millions of taxpayers is the TCJA’s larger standard deduction. Under the tax law, the standard deduction nearly doubled, providing more Americans with a bigger shield for their income. The standard deduction, which reduces a taxpayer’s taxable income, will be $15,000 for single taxpayers in 2025 and $30,000 for couples filing jointly.
But if that provision expires, the standard deduction would shrink to $8,350 for single filers in 2026 and $16,700 for joint filers, according to the Tax Foundation. Personal exemptions, which were eliminated under the TCJA, would return, at $5,300 per filer.
What about the Child Tax Credit?
Without an extension of the TCJA, the Child Tax Credit would also revert to its pre-TCJA level in 2026.
“The maximum child tax credit would revert back to $1,000 from $2,000 under TCJA and begin phasing out at $75,000 in adjusted gross income for single filers and $110,000 for joint filers, compared to $200,000 and $400,000, respectively, under the TCJA,” the Tax Foundation notes.
Some Republican lawmakers are sounding the alarm about the potential cut to this tax credit, although they largely voted against a bill earlier this year that would have expanded the CTC to provide more relief to low-income families.
In a December 11 statement, House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith, a Republican from Missouri, advocated for the extension of the $2,000 CTC.
“Raising a family can be challenging enough without Washington pulling the rug out from under parents,” Smith said. “But that’s exactly what will happen if the 2017 Trump tax cuts are allowed to expire next year.”
Could the $10,000 SALT cap deduction change?
The state and local tax (SALT) deduction allows taxpayers who itemize to deduct property taxes, sales taxes, and state or local income taxes from their federal income taxes. Prior to the TCJA, there was no limit on how much people could deduct through the SALT deduction.
The TCJA limited the deduction to $10,000, regardless of whether claimants file as a single taxpayer or married filing jointly — a measure that was widely criticized in regions with high property taxes, such as many areas of the Northeast.
In the years since the tax law was passed, more people have been hit with the SALT deduction cap due to the rise in property values and local taxes. On the campaign trail, Trump vowed to scrap the $10,000 cap, while his economic adviser Stephen Moore on Thursday said the new administration would like to raise the cap to $20,000.
How likely is Congress to extend Trump’s tax cuts?
Republicans have a majority in the House and Senate, as they did in 2017 when Congress passed the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act. That greatly boosts the odds of extending the tax cuts.
At the same time, economists and fiscal hawks are raising concerns about the fiscal impact of prolonging the cuts, with the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimating that extending all the provisions could add more than $5 trillion to the deficit through fiscal year 2035.
For their part, Trump campaign officials have floated cuts in federal spending as a way to eliminate the nation’s growing deficit. Billionaires Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy have been tapped by Trump to create recommendations on slashing spending, with the pair saying their Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, plans to cut $500 billion in costs.
However, DOGE is an advisory body, not a federal agency, and it remains to be determined how effective the group will be in reducing spending.
What should you do now ahead of potential tax changes in 2025?
If possible, prepare for the TCJA provisions expiring next year, Campbell advised. That’s going to be most applicable for higher-income Americans, who are more likely to be affected by some of the changes.
For instance, the TCJA almost doubled the lifetime estate and gift tax exemption — the amount people can gift to others without paying taxes — to $13.6 million per person and $27.2 million for a married couple. If the TCJA expires, that would decline to about $7.5 million per individual and $14.5 million for a married couple, according to Fidelity.
To be sure, that change wouldn’t impact most Americans, but those with significant assets may want to plan ahead, Campbell said. “If you do nothing, you have lost out on ability to transfer another $7 million” before the provision expires, he added.
Another potential change is the expiration of the qualified business income deduction, which allowed small business owners, freelancers and others who own their own business to deduct 20% of their income from their taxes. That tax break is set to expire at the end of 2025.
If that isn’t extended, small business owners should plan to set aside extra cash to pay higher taxes in 2026, Campbell said. “The law is what the law is today, and it’s going to expire,” he said. “That should be first and foremost in our planning.”
