Every year, it feels like a handful of teams don’t belong in the NFL Playoffs, and only a select few can win it all. This year is no different. There are high-flying offenses, quarterbacks who always seem to find a way, and a few teams that are happy to be here.
Today, we’ll separate the pretenders from the contenders by putting each team into a tier to determine who has the best chance at hoisting a Lombardi trophy a month from now.
Start making vacation plans
14. Houston Texans
The Texans kick off the bottom quartet after struggling all season against a bottom-10 schedule. C.J. Stroud went from sensational to suspect in one calendar year. The offense was lackluster when healthy, and they’ve only trended in the wrong direction since losing Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell for the season.
If Houston wins in the first round, it’ll be because of their defense. They make you one-dimensional, don’t allow the big play through the air, and finished the season with the second-highest pressure rate against the quarterback.
Star players rise to the occasion. That’s something Stroud did at Ohio State on the biggest stage. If Houston advances beyond the first round, it’ll be because Stroud, Will Anderson Jr., or Derek Stingley Jr. perform like the top overall draft picks they were coming into the league. Don’t rule out a Nico Collins breakout game, either.
However, injuries at wide receiver and limitations on offense give Houston the lowest ceiling of any team in the playoffs.
13. Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels came into the league as the reigning Heisman winner. Those types of players have unrealistic expectations. The Commanders had no business making the playoffs. But Daniels helped Washington score at least 26 points in eight of their games.
Kliff Kingsbury’s second chance hasn’t gone unnoticed during the head coaching cycle. He’s helped Washington’s ground game rank fourth in rushing success rate since Week 11. In high-leverage games, Daniels’s improv skills on the ground have bailed Washington out time and time again. Sprinkle in a big play here and there, and that’s how the Commanders made the postseason.
It’s the other side of the ball that’ll be the reason the Commanders are one-and-done in the playoffs. The Cooper Rush-led Cowboys scored 34 points against Washington. Pittsburgh, whose offense leaves a lot to be desired, reached 28 points.
Washington received much-needed reinforcements, getting Jonathan Allen back in Week 17. Cornerback Marshon Lattimore is also a big boost, but there’s still little reason to believe those two will be enough to slow down Tampa Bay. Washington is ahead of schedule, and that’ll show this weekend.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers
Mike Tomlin’s team went 0-4 down the stretch, failing to surpass 17 points in each contest. But winning sexy in the playoffs doesn’t matter, and the Steelers are the type of team to win a game 18-16 — ask the Ravens.
Pittsburgh is good enough against the run defensively to muck any game up. We’ll get to see playoff Russ in action. History suggests that he’ll make the Steelers competitive. George Pickens is one reception away from putting Pittsburgh in scoring position, and maybe Arthur Smith will make Jaylen Warren the focal point for a change.
It’s tough to forget the past month or a loss to the Browns in November. Tomlin’s “us against the world” mentality works in the regular season, but the Steelers never felt like a team that could string together multiple wins against quality opponents, and that won’t change this month.
11. Los Angeles Chargers
Generally speaking, whenever you have an elite quarterback, you have a chance to beat anybody. Justin Herbert’s playoff debut comes on the road with his best target, a rookie slot receiver.
Herbert has the highest percentage of on-target throws of any playoff quarterback and was second in PFF’s “big-time throws.” We’ve seen Herbert bail the Chargers out of suboptimal situations all year and go above and beyond what he’s asked.
Despite facing the 24th easiest schedule of defenses, this is a Chargers team that finished 29th in the NFL in rushing success rate. You can’t be taken seriously if you can’t run the ball in the playoffs.
It doesn’t help that Joshua Palmer, who is fourth on the team in targets, has been ruled out. That puts more pressure on rookie Ladd McConkey.
The Chargers are another team ahead of schedule. Their defense will show its flaws, likely causing them to be one-and-done in the playoffs. Whenever they played an offense with a pull down the stretch, Los Angeles struggled to get off the field.
This is not a team that feels trustworthy, especially on the road.
So you’re saying there’s a chance
10. Denver Broncos
These next three teams played with enough variance throughout the season where it wouldn’t be surprising for them to pull off at least one upset. Does that mean it’ll happen? Not necessarily.
But a few weeks ago the Denver Broncos had a commanding first half lead over the Chargers, but blew it as the game progressed. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix ended the season on a high note, completing at least 72 percent of his passes in each of the final three games. Denver didn’t play the most difficult schedule, but they scored in bunches.
Denver finished sixth in EPA per play since Week 11, meaning they have the capability of generating big plays every drive. That’s the key to success in the playoffs when you get fewer possessions than usual.
The better news for Denver is they finished third in EPA per play defensively, and were one of the most stingiest rushing defenses in the second half. Zach Allen finally got the recognition he deserved, while Nik Bonitto is a budding star, and Patrick Surtain is not the cornerback you want to test.
Denver sits at the top of the “ahead of schedule teams.” They have everything you need to pull off an upset, but we worry that there’s not enough firepower outside of Courtland Sutton to make a run.
9. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings would be ranked higher if they were playing at home. Their defense makes you earn every yard, are excellent at stopping the run, and can cause enough chaos to force you into a mistake.
Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are one of the better wide receiver duos in the NFL. It’s a surprise whenever a team holds Jefferson under 100 receiving yards.
But Aaron Jones never got going during the second half of the season. You’re telling me the Vikings hopes rest on the right arm of Sam Darnold on the road? Have fun with that.
This is a Vikings team that struggled to pull away from the Jaguars, Titans, Bears, and Seahawks on the road in the second half, and didn’t score double-digits against the Lions. They have talent, but are a different squad on the highway.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Love the Buccaneers. Hate their draw. Baker Mayfield is the quarterback you want to go to battle with in a do-or-die situation. Mayfield puts his body on the line for every completion.
Mike Evans, Cade Otton, and the emergence of Jalen Mcmillan gives Tampa Bay a solid trio of pass catchers. They’re also effective using their running backs in the passing game.
Speaking of, now is the time for Liam Coen to unleash Bucky Irving. It’s the playoffs. Irving single-handedly won the Bucs games down the stretch. Reward him now that it’s the playoffs.
Tampa Bay was second in EPA per play and success rate offensively. They can score, and I fully expect them to light the scoreboard up against Washington. But can they get any stops moving forward? Their numbers say yes, but the schedule says they haven’t played anybody.
We’ll believe it when we see it, but wouldn’t rule out Tampa Bay giving whoever they face in the divisional round more issues than expected.
Something smells fishy here
7. Detroit Lions
If I haven’t lost you yet, I probably will by having these three teams lumped together. Let’s start with Detroit, the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
In Week 18, many people saw a dominant 31-9 performance. I saw a defense that could’ve easily given up 24 points had Darnold hit three or four routine plays.
The week before, the Lions allowed 34 points to the 49ers. In that game, the Niners missed a pair of field goals and threw two interceptions. So, it could have easily been 40+ for San Francisco.
Two weeks before, Josh Allen and the Bills scored 48. We know the Lions can score. But you have to have a backbone defensively, and I haven’t seen anything to suggest they’ll get stops when they need to in the playoffs, which is why they’re ranked so low.
6. Green Bay Packers
If you asked me which team was the most difficult to describe, it’d be the cheeseheads. There were points during the regular season where I thought Green Bay was the best team in the NFC. Injuries, inconsistencies, and a passing offense without an identity will prevent the Packers from winning the Super Bowl. Losing big-play threat Christian Watson will prove costly.
When Edgerrin Cooper is on the field, the Packers have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They limit explosive plays as much as anybody Green Bay’s issue is once the opponent reaches the red zone, it usually results in a touchdown.
I know Jordan Love has a fadeaway throw of one foot for 40 yards in his back pocket. The reason you go out and get a Josh Jacobs is for the playoffs. Matt LaFLeur will have the Packers in the best situations possible, and Jeff Hafley’s defense will continue to play bully ball.
But something has been off with the Packers all year and projecting them to do something thy haven’t all year — consistently beat the good teams on their schedule — feels like a big ask.
5. Buffalo Bills
Buffalo has arguably the best player in the NFL at Josh Allen. Whenever they take the field, it’s a shock if the Bills don’t score 30 points.
The addition of Amari Cooper hasn’t done much on a down to down basis, although Cooper has a big reception a game. It still feels like Khalil Shakir the one wide receiver Allen can trust, but that’s not good enough in the playoffs.
James Cook has been all or nothing, but the nothing happens more often than many are willing to admit, especially against the top tier of defenses. So, Buffalo will do what they always do and expect Allen to get them into good spots and out of porous situations. That works in the regular season, but I have my doubts in the postseason.
Allen might not have a choice to score 30 the way Buffalo’s defense has been playing. If I have a hard time seeing them stopping Denver, who will it look against Baltimore the next week? Or Kansas City after that? The Bills are another team I’ve struggled with all season, and believe they’re more paper tigers than Super Bowl champs.
The real threats
4. Los Angeles Rams
Playoff McVay. Playoff Stafford. Best of all, the Rams path to the big game means they’ll have to go through the defenses of the Vikings and Lions before the NFC Championship. McVay — who is the best coach in the NFL for my money — isn’t going to struggle on offense when playing in a dome.
Which one of the above defenses do you trust to slow down Puka Nacua? As the offensive line has gotten healthier, the Rams rushing attack has stabilized their offense. That makes their play-action and screen game all the more effective.
The Rams run defense has quietly been effective down the stretch. Their defensive line, led by rookie Jared Verse, might be the most underrated group in the entire playoffs. They play bully ball and live on the other side of the scrimmage.
This team is the most slept on in the playoff field. The Rams are my pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
Talent-wise, the Eagles are superior to everybody in the NFC. Not even two months ago, they destroyed the Rams on their home field. The Eagles beat the Packers, Commanders, Ravens, and Steelers this season.
To me, this is the best defense in the postseason. Jalen Carter is unblockable. Josh Sweat consistently wins, and the speed, athleticism, and instincts on the Eagles defense is second to none. The one worry would be inexperience in the secondary and at linebacker. Qunyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean are first-year players. Nakobe Dean is basically a rookie. A smart coach, maybe one residing in Los Angeles, will look to isolate those three and test their youth.
For a team with Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, and Devonta Smith, you’d think the Eagles would cruise to 35 points a game.
With their offensive line, how could they not? Again, talent-wise, it’s difficult to doubt Philly. But Hurts hasn’t played meaningful football in nearly a month, and they go through lulls offensively that make you wonder how checked in the Eagles are. But it’s the playoffs, and there are good to great players all over the field for the Eagles. I see them squeaking by the Packers, blowing out Tampa Bay, and falling flat on their faces at home against the Rams in what will be a disappointing finish to an impressive season.
2. Baltimore Ravens
Will this finally be the season the “playoff Lamar” jokes cease?
It was another ho-hum season for Jackson after he threw for over 4,100 yards and totaled 45 touchdowns. Baltimore’s offense would go through stretches where they looked clunky. Then, you’d look up and see they have 30+ points. They’re the best rushing offense in football, and you’d think Todd Monken leans on Lamar’s legs more than ever.
Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, and Isaiah Likely are consistent. But if this offense reaches the Super Bowl, it’ll be because Derrick Henry, who tied for the NFL’s lead with 25 rushes of at least 15 yards and led the NFL in first downs.
Statistically, Baltimore boasts the best defense in the NFL since Week 11. Kyle Hamilton is a unicorn. Roquan Smith has been a top-2 linebacker for two years. Rookie Nate Wiggins has been as good as advertised at cornerback. And the front seven punches you in the face every snap, controls the line of scrimmage, and can pressure you from the inside or the edge.
There aren’t many flaws on this Ravens team. Any other year, they’d be the team to beat. But like every other year, there’s the same team standing in their way.
The team to beat
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Amazingly, the Chiefs won 15 games this season. I waffled back and forth between “Is this the worst 15-win team of all-time” and “nobody is beating them in the playoffs.” The latter is true now that Joe Thuney is at left tackle. Pass protection was the biggest reason for concern in the playoffs as the Chiefs cycled through rookies and journeymen before their hand was forced to move Thuney.
Thuney at left tackle and Hollywood Brown makes this the best version of the Chiefs offense we’ve seen all season. It’s a small sample size, but they scored 27 and 29 points against two playoff opponents, and did so without much resistance.
Brown and Xavier Worthy add a big-play element that had been missing all season. Sprinkle in DeAndre Hopkins on third downs and in the red zone, and Travis Kelce on the six plays when Patrick Mahomes is running for his life as Jawann Taylor avoids getting penalized, and I’m not sure who is stopping the Chiefs.
The schedule helps. In the divisional round, Kansas City faces the lowest-seed remaining. Then, they’ll get Baltimore or Buffalo, before facing the NFC opponent. I’ll take the best quarterback to ever take a snap with his full arsenal of weapons at Arrowhead Stadium.
Oh yeah, the defense.
Chris Jones led all defensive tackles in pass rush wins this season. He’s the definition of a game-wrecker. George Karlaftis doesn’t get the love he deserves. He will make multiple plays a game to impact the outcome.
Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will mix and match personnel until he finds what works. Spags’ blitz packages are a thing of beauty, and I wouldn’t want anybody else calling plays as he always finds ways to manipulate the opponents pass protection.
I hate to play spoiler, but the Chiefs are winning it all. Again. They’re the team to beat and it will be surprising if Mahomes isn’t lifting another Lombardi Trophy a month from now.
