The Detroit Lions’ defense could be their key to a Super Bowl win

Everybody in the NFL is afraid of the 10-1 Detroit Lions’ offense, and for good reason. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has combined run and pass concepts to a level that will have him taking his pick of soon-to-be-open head coaching jobs whenever he wants them. The adherence to his passing structure, with its combinations of protection, route spacing, and execution, has revived quarterback Jared Goff’s career. And the multiple run concepts have turned running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery (that’s “Sonic and Knuckles” to us) into the league’s most feared running back tandem.

The general thought with offenses this deadly and efficient (the Lions currently rank second in Offensive DVOA, 10th in Passing DVOA, and second in Rushing DVOA) is that if you cart a half-decent defense through the postseason, it could very well be enough to get you to and through the Super Bowl.

That might be the case for the Lions, except for the fact that there’s another problem for the rest of the NFL: The Lions’ defense right now is as good as (or maybe better than) their offense. It’s not something oft-discussed, but the tape and the metrics confirm it.

What defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has done in his fourth season is historically remarkable.

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• The Lions have not surrendered a second-half point in three straight games. This is their longest streak since not allowing a second-half point in each of the first four games of the 1980 season.
• The Lions have not surrendered a TD in 10 straight quarters. The last time they didn’t allow a TD in any 10-quarter stretch was from Nov 20-Dec. 5, 1983.
• The Lions have only allowed seven passing TDs through the first 11 games of the season. This is their fewest passing TDs allowed through the first 11 games of a season since 1986, when they only allowed six.
• The only times the Lions have not allowed a game with multiple TD passes within the first 11 games of a season:

– 2024
– 1934
– 1932
– 1931

• The Lions have not allowed a touchdown in consecutive games for the first time since 1999.

Now, if you’re concerned that we’re caught up in recency bias… we’re not. In the first half of the 2024 season (Weeks 1-9), Detroit ranked second overall in Defensive DVOA (behind only the Minnesota Vikings), second in Defensive DVOA against the pass (again, behind only the Vikings), ninth in Defensive DVOA against the run, second in opponent passer rating allowed (77.8; only the Chicago Bears were better at 77.4), tied with the Los Angeles Charges with the lowest Passing EPA per play allowed (-0.13), and tied with the Baltimore Ravens for the NFL’s fifth-most quarterback pressures (119).

Against the Indianapolis Colts in their 24-6 Week 12 win, Detroit allowed quarterback Anthony Richardson to complete 11 of 28 passes for 172 yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 60.4. Richardson did gain 61 yards on 10 rushing attempts, but that wasn’t nearly enough against a high-powered offense like Detroit’s.

After the Colts game, the Lions rank second in Defensive DVOA (behind only the Vikings), first in Weighted Defensive DVOA (which gives more weight to recent games), first overall in Defensive DVOA against the pass, and third in Defensive DVOA against the run, behind the Vikings and the Houston Texans.

How on earth are Glenn and his coaches and players getting this done, and how have they improved so drastically from 2023, when Detroit’s defense ranked 13th in Defensive DVOA, 27th in Weighted Defensive DVOA, and 16th against the pass. The Lions were first in Defensive DVOA against the run last season, but everything else is in a different stratosphere.

Aaron Glenn finally has the defensive backs he wants

In 2023, Glenn laid off the aggressive press coverage he would prefer, because he didn’t have the defensive backs to do it. He would prefer to play a lot of press with combinations of man and zone coverage behind it, but with a less spectacular group – especially at the cornerback position – Glenn was put in a bit of a box. Last season, the Lions played with no defenders in press coverage on 38% of their snaps. That’s reduced to 32% this season. It’s not a huge rate difference, but when you have cornerbacks Terrion Arnold and Carlton Davis III as your primary outside cornerbacks, and Amik Robertson as your primary slot cornerbacks, you have three guys who can play either aggressive press coverage, or more nuanced mirror-match coverage.

Arnold, the rookie from Alabama, has had his rough spots in his first NFL season. But at his core, Arnold is a beast ready for press coverage, and you’re starting to see that more often. Arnold may have been at his best against fellow rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. and the Arizona Cardinals in Week 3. Harrison could do very little when Arnold was on him from the first step.

As for Davis, part of his job when the Lions faced the Dallas Cowboys in Week 6 was to shut down CeeDee Lamb, and Davis did that well when he was in press against Dallas’ star receiver. The former Buccaneers cornerback has fit Glenn’s concepts like a glove in his first season in the Motor City.

These defensive backs are the primary reason Glenn has increased his rate of man coverage from 28% in 2023 (12th in the league) to 46% in 2024, which ranks first. And when you have Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph as the NFL’s best safety duo, you have the safety net to run what you want. Both Branch and Joseph have improved massively this season.

The Lions’ linebackers are all amazing in their own ways

Nickel may be the new base defense in the NFL, but don’t tell Glenn that. This season, the Lions have put three linebackers on the field in their 4-3-4 packages on 38% of their snaps, which also ranks first in the league. Jack Campbell, Alex Anzalone, and Malcolm Rodriguez are all good players who work well together. All three can bring pressure with the blitz (Campbell can also work on the defensive line), all three are stop machines in the run game, and all three can cover if need be.

Campbell is the known entity, and justifiably so, but Rodriguez may be the best of the lot this season, especially as a guided missile into the backfield on run plays and quarterback pressures.

Sadly, Anzalone (who’s the glue guy of the group) will miss several weeks after suffering a broken forearm in Week 11. But Anzalone should be ready for the postseason, and there’s decent depth in the interim. Ben Niemann and Ezekiel Turner are the primaries there.

Speaking of injuries, there’s the elephant (or the Lion) in the room, and we’ll get to that next.

Lions are replacing Aidan Hutchinson in the aggregate

When edge-rushing demon Aidan Hutchinson suffered a broken left tibia and fibula in Week 6, the only chance for his return was perhaps for the Super Bowl, if the Lions get there. Most likely, Detroit will be without their primary quarterback disruptor on a no-matter-what basis no matter how far they go in the postseason.

Such a loss would ruin a lot of defenses, and it’s affected Detroit’s defense to a degree. You can’t just shake a tree and hope that Aidan Hutchinsons will just fall off. But while the Lions had a defensive pressure rate of 35.9% with Hutchinson on the field, it’s only dropped to 33.6% since. And yes, the sack rate has reduced from 7.7% to 4.9% since Hutchinson’s injury, the Offensive EPA allowed without Hutchinson is virtually identical – -0.12 with him, and -0.13 without them. And EPA is better on the defensive side when it’s negative. Detroit traded for veteran pass-rusher Za’Darius Smith on November 5, and while Smith has been getting up to speed, lesser-known names like Alim McNeill, James Houston, Levi Onwuzurike, and Josh Paschal have stepped up in important ways since Week 7. If Smith can ramp it up to his best level (which is scary good from multiple gaps), all the better.

The Detroit Lions are for real because of their defense

The Lions have not won an NFL championship since the end of the 1957 season, but it could be argued that they’ve never been in a better position to do sot since then. Not just because of an offense that is the envy of the league, but also with a defense that has morphed into one of the league’s secret terrors. In truth, it’s Aaron Glenn’s defense that has made this Lions team more than a one-sided flash in the pan that can be taken down by the right opponent.

And that could be enough for a Lombardi Trophy.